| YEAR | WEEKLY RENT | ANNUAL RENT | VS INTEREST | CF STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | $300/wk | $15,600 | $-2,028 | NG BRIDGE |
| Year 1 | $324/wk | $16,848 | $-780 | NEAR-POS |
| Year 2 | $350/wk | $18,196 | +$568 | POSITIVE |
| Year 3 | $378/wk | $19,652 | +$2,024 | POSITIVE |
| Year 4 | $408/wk | $21,224 | +$3,596 | POSITIVE |
GRACE-PERIOD CONVERGENCE PLAY. Current 4.6% yield self-heals to cashflow-positive in ~18-24 months on 8% rent growth — but incoming 20,000 construction workers + BlueScope acquisition (Sept 2026) + Northern Water decision (mid-2026) compress that timeline to 6-9 months. SA govt has removed the binary GFG risk via KordaMentha administration and formal sale. $30.3B pipeline across 107 projects makes this a government-designated industrial transition zone, not a single-employer town.
Below 5.5% yield threshold today (4.6%) — this is a convergence play, not a yield play yet. BlueScope acquisition not confirmed until Sept 2026. Northern Water decision mid-2026. New builds are the cleanest entry — retain unlimited NG, capture workforce housing demand from day one.
Grace window is actively useful here: buy during grace period, get NG bridge (~$1,278/yr effective at 37% marginal rate) while rent converges. At 8% rent growth: Year 1 $15,600 rent, Year 2 $16,900, Year 24 $18,200 — crosses breakeven before NG is removed. New builds retain unlimited NG permanently. The 20,000 construction workers need housing NOW — this is not slow organic rent growth, it's a demand shock.